“9·11”恐怖袭击事件21年后，美国社会更安全了吗？答案恐怕是否定的。“9·11”后，美国发动“反恐战争”全方位阻截国际恐怖主义对本土的袭击，但本土恐怖主义却悄然蔓延。不仅如此，枪支暴力、政治暴力等多重暴力威胁笼罩美国社会，美国人的安全焦虑不减反增。据美国非营利组织“枪支暴力档案”（GVA）统计，截至当地时间9月12日，美国已有多达757名儿童（0—11岁）和3597名青少年（12—17岁）因枪击死亡或受伤。    WARSAW, Poland -- The majority of voters in Poland's general election supported opposition parties that promised to reverse democratic backsliding and repair the nation's relationship with allies, including the European Union and Ukraine, according to projections Monday.After a bitter and emotional campaign, turnout was projected at almost 73%, the highest level in the country's 34 years of democracy and surpassing the 63% who turned out in the historic 1989 vote that toppled communism. In the city of Wroclaw, the lines were so long that voting continued through the night until nearly 3 a.m.A so-called late exit poll by Ipsos suggested that voters had grown tired of the governing nationalist Law and Justice party after eight years of divisive policies that led to frequent street protests, bitter divisions within families and billions of euros (dollars) in funding held up by the EU over rule of law violations.Poland's currency, the zloty, strengthened against the dollar and the euro on news of the opposition gains.The outcome could also affect ties with neighboring Ukraine, which Poland has supported in the war against Russia's aggression. The good relations soured in September over Ukraine grain entering and affecting Poland's market.The Ipsos poll showed that three centrist opposition parties that campaigned on a promise to reverse the illiberal drift of the government had together secured around 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, or Sejm, a clear majority.“I am really overjoyed now," Magdalena Chmieluk, a 43-year-old accountant, said Monday morning. The opposition "will form a government and we will finally be able to live in a normal country, for real.”The opposition parties faced many disadvantages in contesting the election, said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank.The governing party mobilized its administrative resources to help itself, including by controlling the election administration and by an unfair division of votes in electoral districts, he said.“This success is even more remarkable knowing that the whole playing field was uneven. The electoral system was really tilted toward the government,” Kucharczyk told The Associated Press. “You could say that the opposition had to fight this election with one hand tied behind its back and they still won.”Still, Poles on Monday were facing weeks of political uncertainty. Law and Justice won more votes than any single party and said it would try to build a new government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.“No matter how you look at it, we won,” Law and Justice campaign manager Joachim Brudzinski said Monday in an interview on RMF FM radio.President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of the election and designate a prime minister to try to build a government. In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.The tradition in the democratic era has been for the president to first tap someone from the party with the most votes, but he is not required to do so.It was not clear how Law and Justice could realistically hold onto power, unless it managed to win over some lawmakers from opposition parties, something it did in the past to maintain the thin parliamentary majority it held for eight years. But that seemed unlikely given the large number that would need to change allegiances.The leader of the agrarian PSL party, a frequent kingmaker in past governments, ruled out cooperating with Law and Justice, known in Poland as PiS, after running with the Third Way coalition.“Those who voted for us want change, want a change of government, want PiS removed from power," Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on RMF FM.The Ipsos poll showed Law and Justice with 36.6% of the votes cast; the opposition Civic Coalition, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, with 31%; the centrist Third Way coalition with 13.5%; the Left party with 8.6%; and the far-right Confederation with 6.4%.The electoral commission said it expected to report the final result Tuesday.Tusk on Sunday evening declared that it was the end of Law and Justice rule and that a new era had begun for Poland.But not all rejoiced over the projected outcome. “I am disappointed with the results but I accept the democratic choice," said Elzbieta Szadur-Urbanska, a 58-year-old psychologist who voted for Law and Justice. “I think my party is also democratic.”Others were concerned about possible obstacles to a smooth transfer of power.The public television broadcaster, TVP, was reporting on Monday that Law and Justice had won the election.Cezary Tomczyk, vice chairman of Tusk’s party, said the governing party would do everything it could to try to maintain power. He called on it to accept the election result, saying it was the will of the people to give power to the opposition.“The nation has spoken,” Tomczyk said. Even if the opposition parties take power, they will face difficulties in putting forward their agenda. The president will have the power to veto new legislation, while the constitutional court, whose role is to ensure that new laws don't violate the basic law, is loyal to the current governing party, Kucharczyk said.“Fixing the relations with the EU in particular will require domestic changes, namely restoring the independence of the judiciary, restoring the rule of law, which is a condition for the EU to release the funding for Poland,” Kucharczyk said. “It will be a very, very prolonged and difficult process."___Associated Press journalists Pietro De Cristofaro, Kwiyeon Ha and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。如果照这个速度发展，2022年全年美国因枪死伤的儿童和青少年数量都将超过2021年的水平，成为有统计数据以来最严重的一年。枪支暴力愈演愈烈在美国已经不是新闻了。就在刚刚过去的这个周末，美国又发生多起枪击事件，造成多人死伤。GVA数据显示，截至12日，美国已发生造成4人及以上伤亡的大规模枪击事件479起，平均每天有122人死于枪击。此起彼伏的枪声、无处不在的威胁、不断上升的伤亡数据都加剧了美国人的安全焦虑和恐慌。枪支暴力频发已经让美国人不知道什么地方才是安全的：“计划逃离的路线”“不再去当地的杂货店”“正在考虑离开这个国家”“害怕送孩子上学”……美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）7月的一项调查显示，在激增的枪击事件影响下，美国人的恐惧和焦虑与日俱增。在美国迟迟不能采取釜底抽薪的控枪措施的背景下，美国社会陷入了枪击案数量持续增长、美国枪支销量屡创新高的恶性循环中。GVA的数据显示，2020和2021年全美发生大规模枪击事件分别为610起和691起，涉枪死亡人数分别是43682人和45058人。而根据美国国家射击运动基金会（NSSF）统计，这两年全美分别售出了2100万和1850万支枪支，首次购枪人数分别为840万人和540万人，其中2020年首次购枪的人士中，还有23%在2021年又购买了至少一支枪。这表明，在过去两年时间里，美国人本就不多的安全感不断被削弱，越来越多人试图通过持枪保持安全感，但这又反过来加剧了枪支泛滥和枪支暴力，令社会更加动荡。而愈演愈烈的枪支暴力不过是美国国内暴力问题加剧的冰山一角。9月11日，美国国土安全部长马约卡斯在接受美国微软全国广播公司（MSNBC）采访时表示，美国的“国家威胁”已经从国外恐怖主义转为国内暴力极端分子，这种变化与恐怖主义意识形态、仇恨意识形态、反政府情绪、虚假信息等在美国国内传播有密切关系。可以说，过去几年美国政治极化加剧、社会持续撕裂、种族对立升级，成了美国戾气横行、暴力频发的“催化剂”。以国内恐怖主义为例，5月14日，美国纽约州布法罗市一家超市发生大规模枪击事件，造成10人死亡、3人受伤，枪手是18岁白人青年佩顿·金德伦。

二 | 这起事件充分体现了种族主义、恐怖主义与政治社会极化对美国安全局势的严重负面影响：袭击者是一名信奉白人至上主义的极右翼人士，他选择攻击的目标则是一个仅有1%人口是白人的非洲裔社区的超市，在作案前他通过互联网发布了一份充满种族主义和极右翼意识形态的所谓“宣言”。美国《大西洋月刊》就直言：“金德伦并不孤单，他得到了一个为其‘猎杀’行为提供意识形态和方法的组织的支持”。与此同时，美国政治暴力也愈演愈烈。

三 | 如果说2021年1月6日国会山骚乱抽走了美国自诩的“民主灯塔”的基石，那么今年8月美国联邦调查局搜查前总统特朗普住所事件，更是撕掉了“美式民主”的遮羞布。近年来，美式民主“画皮”后的真面目让全世界瞠目结舌：至今仍不承认竞选连任失败的前总统、将前任及其支持者称为“半法西斯主义者”的现总统、叫嚣美国将爆发内战的现任议员……美国前参议员小保罗·柯克9月3日在《波士顿环球报》撰文称，美国现在是一个到处充斥着武器的国家，如果不加控制，一些极端分子受虚假信息和阴谋论的蛊惑，有可能在即将到来的中期选举中点燃一场暴力政治内战。21年前，美国以“9·11”事件为借口发动“反恐战争”，将战火肆意引到世界其他国家和地区。21年过去了，美国可能防了外患，但却生了内乱。面对这样的局面，美国政客该好好反思了。

四 | （聂舒翼）